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Investigating the factors affecting oil prices in Iran with emphasis on economic policy uncertainty, global geopolitical risk, and global uncertainty using the NARDL method
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Seyyed badiollah Mousavi1   , Abbas Aminifard2 , Seyyed Nematollah Mousavi3 |
1- Ph.D. candidate of oil and gas economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. , aaminifard@yahoo.com
3- Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran |
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Abstract: (467 Views) |
Oil is one of the most important raw materials in the world, which is used in many industries. In this study, economic policy uncertainty, global geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on oil price fluctuations have been investigated using the NARDL method. The results of the model estimation showed that the oil price with a time lag period, the positive shock of economic policy uncertainty with a lag period and the negative shock of global uncertainty with a lag period affect oil prices in Iran. Also, the global uncertainty affects the price of oil in Iran both in the short term and in the long term. Also, the value of the ECM coefficient shows that every year 75% of the short-term shocks are adjusted towards the long-term equilibrium values and it takes less than two periods for the fluctuation in the model to approach the long-term equilibrium values.
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| Keywords: Uncertainty of economic policy, global geopolitical risk and global uncertainty, Iran, NARDL. |
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Full-Text [PDF 966 kb]
(312 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Management
Received: 2023/11/6 | Accepted: 2024/08/14 | Published: 2025/02/28
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