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Investigating economic uncertainty, global geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on oil price fluctuations in Iran
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Seyyed badiollah Mousavi1   , Abbas Aminifard2 , Seyyed Nematollah Mousavi3 |
1- Ph.D. candidate of oil and gas economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran , bdiallahmoosavi@gmail.com
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
3- Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran |
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Abstract: (851 Views) |
Oil has become the main source of income for Iran in recent years, which has significant attention in Iran's economy. Paying attention to oil and its price fluctuations can be very important for policy makers. Considering the effect of oil price on internal and external conditions of Iran, in this study, economic policy uncertainty, global geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on oil price have been examined. The method is to use ARDL. The data used include Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), Global Geopolitical Risk Index (GR), Global Uncertainty (WUI) and oil prices in the period from 3:2001 to 2022:5. The results of the short-term ARDL model showed that changes in P (-1), P (-3), WUI and EPU affect oil price fluctuations. Also, the results of long-term evaluation showed that changes in EPU and WUI have an effect on oil price fluctuations.
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| Keywords: economic policy uncertainty, global geopolitics and global uncertainty, Iran. |
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Full-Text [PDF 466 kb]
(414 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Management
Received: 2023/11/6 | Accepted: 2023/11/26 | Published: 2024/06/21
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